Oscars

Since just about everyone else has already written plenty about this year's Oscars, there's probably no need for another to put another one on the pile, but what the hell . . .

If I had been writing this a few weeks ago, I would be predicting The Social Network to win in a walk. It's gotten as close to universal praise as a modern film can have, and made enough money to get itself noticed by the voters. But as more and more of the indicator awards have gone to The King's Speech it looks likely that the infamous Weinstein marketing machine is working its magic yet again.
I quite enjoyed The King's Speech, and when I first saw it I did not expect it to get much notice - it felt like a movie that only people with my own tastes would enjoy. Now it seems that it's going to go down as a much-derided movie only by virtue of winning the Oscar over better-liked movies (think Shakespeare, which I also liked very much). There may be a last-minute rally round The Social Network, but as the ceremony draws closer it looks less and less likely.

As for The Social Network, it still may win, so I'll write a bit about it too - I liked it a lot (and would prefer it to The King's Speech), but mostly out of admiration for its technique - it takes a story that you wouldn't think would make a very interesting movie and makes it fascinating. David Fincher tended to overdo the atmosphere and the stylistics in his earlier movies like Se7en and Fight Club, but in this film and Zodiac he's made his sense of style all the more effective my using it in a way that doesn't immediately announce itself. Thinking about both movies afterward, I realized all of the different tricks he had used, but I wasn't thinking about them all that much while I watched. As far as I'm concerned, that's the best sign of their effectiveness.

There's been a lot of praise for its relevance to contemporary society, but I'm a bit less interested in that; it doesn't seem quite sure what it thinks about this new phenomenon, but since we're all not quite sure what effects these new social networking sites are going to have on our society, it's probably the best route to take.

Before the sudden Speech bandwagon, it didn't look like there would be much of a contest in any big category - the only one I could think of would be Original Screenplay - would they give it to The King's Speech or Inception? Now it looks like Picture & Director will be the ones with suspense, while Nolan will have to wait until his next movie. Cinematography and editing might go to Inception as The Social Network's stock falls, but I doubt it. Aaron Sorkin still has a lock in the adaptation category, though.
The lead & supporting categories, in contrast, are looking more certain all the time, so there's not much point in saying too much - Firth, Portman, Bale, Leo. I don't know if any of them would be my own choices (though I have yet to decide who would be), but they were all very good so I won't complain. I would have expected all four of them to go down in history as talented actors who never won, and perhaps that's why they're likely to win - well-respected people who get it as much for their entire careers as for the nominated films.

As for my own choices, I still have yet to make up my mind on most of them - usually it's long after the ceremony before I'm satisfied as to what I would have chosen, but since so many people like to gripe and grouse for years afterward there will always be an audience for such opinions.

It's become the trend to bash every winner - a film may be well-loved, but as soon as it wins the Oscar it loses a lot of appeal. Maybe it's the old "Mom and Dad like it, so it must not be cool after all" effect. For that reason, I rather prefer it when my favorite nominee doesn't win because I know it may still claim a future place among classics. Perhaps it will be ultimately good for The Social Network not to win because its reputation will be better preserved. Bad luck for The King's Speech, though, which will probably become the latest punchline among movie lovers. Such is the way of the film fan.